Orioles opponent preview: AL wild card contenders (2025)

On the FanGraphs projected playoff odds with six days to go until Orioles Opening Day, it’s a wide open American League. No team has more than a 36% chance to win its division or better than 63% to make the postseason at all. The PECOTA picture is a bit more zeroed in on some favored teams but still open to just about anybody except for the White Sox. There’s also not much expected from either the Angels or the Sacramento Athletics.

Everybody else has a chance. And even those teams have a chance, at least until they prove they don’t. When I wrote this article a year ago, the Royals had odds below the threshold of my discussing them in detail. That team made the postseason and ultimately eliminated the Orioles. Teams that surprise their preseason expectations are always possible.

Minnesota Twins

Last season: 82-80, 4th place
Projected wins: 84 (FanGraphs) / 87 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Carlos Santana (free agent)
Key additions: One hesitates to call them key, but they did sign Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France

The Twins won their division in 2023, slashed their payroll by about $30 million going into 2024, and then were not able to keep up with the competition. They haven’t corrected for this going into 2025, as the current Opening Day payroll of about $142 million is still well below where they were two years ago.

One problem for the Twins last year is that their big money position players, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, both played very well (3.7 and 3.6 bWAR, respectively) but were also hurt a lot. Buxton appeared in 102 games and Correa in just 86. This is not a new problem for either of these players. Expected ace Pablo López, another big money guy, made 32 starts and pitched a lot of innings but the results were more of a mid-rotation pitcher.

Will running it back with most of the same players work out better for Minnesota this year? Maybe! Stranger things have happened. They’ve got the makings of a pretty good rotation and they’ve got their position player stars who just need to stay healthy.

Detroit Tigers

Last season: 86-76, t-2nd place
Projected wins: 83 (FanGraphs) / 78 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Pretty much nobody
Key additions: Alex Cobb (1/$15M), Gleyber Torres (1/$15M), Jack Flaherty (2/$35M)

A team can do a lot worse for itself than just keep rolling with last year’s Cy Young winner at the top of its starting rotation. Tarik Skubal turned into a top-flight starting pitcher in 2024. Detroit reunited with Flaherty, who pitched well for them before they traded him away when they didn’t think they’d be making the postseason. Cobb threw just three games a year ago and will be opening the season on the injured list due to hip inflammation.

Kansas City Royals

Last season: 86-76, t-2nd place
Projected wins: 82 (FanGraphs) / 81 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Brady Singer (traded to Reds)
Key additions: Jonathan India (acquired from Reds), Carlos Estévez (2/$22M)

What I wrote for the Tigers above about Skubal in their starting rotation is even more true about the Royals starting with the building block of MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. at shortstop and in the middle of their lineup. Add to that a top 5 Cy finisher duo of Seth Lugo and Cole Ragans, plus 3+ win pitcher Michael Wacha returning to the rotation, and you’ve got some really good high-end pieces for a team. The Royals felt so confident in their rotation that they could trade away Singer (3.1 bWAR in 2024) to try to add India to their offense.

The Royals needed those guys to get anywhere in 2024 because they were a below-average hitting team even with Witt doing what he did. They also needed the rotation to be great because the bullpen was bad. The worst players from that bullpen are gone. They reinforced it by trading for then-Oakland’s reliever Lucas Erceg, as well as former Oriole Hunter Harvey. The signing of Estévez was also made with reinforcing that group in mind.

The Central is open for the taking, if these projections are to be believed. Witt plus Lugo plus Ragans is a good starting point for anybody. If they keep things going and enough of these other pieces step up, the Royals could easily get back into the postseason.

Cleveland Guardians

Last season: 92-69, 1st place
Projected wins: 78 (FanGraphs) / 80 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Andrés Giménez, Nick Sandlin (traded to Blue Jays), Josh Naylor (traded to Diamondbacks), Pedro Avila (DFA)
Key additions: Carlos Santana (1/$12M), Luis Ortiz (acquired from Pirates), Slade Cecconi (acquired from D-backs), Paul Sewald (1/$7M)

Just no respect for the Guardians despite their 92-win season a year ago. One reason for that might be that the team has actually slashed from its already-low $98 million Opening Day 2024 payroll. The trade of Giménez, who has generated 16.4 bWAR in the past three seasons, particularly stands out. He was “only” going to make $10 million this year, though that will keep escalating in a team-friendly contract that runs through 2030. They also subtracted Naylor from their offense.

This is a team that had an incredible bullpen a year ago. All four of the pitchers who appeared in 74 or more games and had an ERA of 1.92 or lower are back, including elite closer Emmanuel Clase, who had a simply absurd 0.659 WHIP and 0.61 ERA. Reliever volatility being what it is, Clase gets a 2.63 ERA projection from FanGraphs and the other guys are in the 3s or even 4s.

The Guardians beating expectations probably involves this group carrying them again. It probably won’t hurt if they get some second-half help in the rotation from their longtime starter Shane Bieber, or if their bet on former Oriole John Means bears any fruit later this year.

Seattle Mariners

Last season: 85-77, 2nd place
Projected wins: 85 (FanGraphs) / 87 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Justin Turner (free agent)
Key additions: Pretty much nobody

Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto made some people angry when, a couple of years ago, he stated that the goal was a .540 winning percentage over a long enough time frame. Probably a number of GMs quietly believe this, and I wouldn’t rule out Mike Elias being one of them. Dipoto was the one dumb enough to say this out loud. A .540 winning percentage is 87 wins. An 87-win season is not quite enough to prompt a Stringer Bell “40 degree day” rant, but it’s not far off from that. It’s a pathetic way to justify not doing much to give yourself a chance to win big.

Seattle missed the postseason with 85 wins a year ago. They’re projected for 85-87 this year. They spent about $10 million on free agents Jorge Polanco (their own returning player whose club option they declined) and Donovan Solano. They’re still stuck with $27 million of their payroll going to a duo of disappointing Mitches, Garver and Haniger. It’s not ideal.

On the other hand, this is a team with a young-ish starting rotation to envy. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby each started 33 games a year ago; Gilbert was under 1 WHIP for the season. So were other young guys Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. The team’s offense at first base stunk. No wonder Orioles fans are always trying to wishcast Ryan Mountcastle trades out here. They’ve also got Julio Rodríguez, who they’ll be hoping hits more like his 2022 Rookie of the Year campaign (.853 OPS) than he did a year ago (.734 OPS).

Houston Astros

Last season: 88-73, 1st place
Projected wins: 84 (FanGraphs) / 88 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Yusei Kikuchi (free agent), Alex Bregman (free agent), Kyle Tucker (traded to Cubs)
Key additions: Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski (acquired from Cubs), Christian Walker (3/$60M)

The 2024 Astros had some big ticket items on their payroll, with $43 million going to Justin Verlander (5.48 ERA in 17 starts) and $30.5 million to Alex Bregman in his last year of arbitration. That money is freed up now but they haven’t spent to replace it; they’ve shaved about $24 million off of last year’s Opening Day payroll and they’re starting off with $31 million of dead money (José Abreu, Rafael Montero).

There were a lot of subtractions from this lineup, you guys. Tucker got traded away; he had a .993 OPS a year ago. Bregman was allowed to hit free agency after a 4+ bWAR season, though with just a .768 OPS, I get why they maybe didn’t want to commit megabucks. Maybe getting Paredes for Tucker will even look savvy to fill that Bregman hole. The signing of Walker could plug a multi-year first base hole that’s cost them a lot of money to try to solve.

The rotation trio of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco lacks the flash of some of the others we’ve discussed, but this could still be a solid 1-2-3 who nobody should count out. Houston will probably be hoping for better than a 3.80 ERA from its $95 million closer Josh Hader this year.

Texas Rangers

Last season: 78-84, 3rd place
Projected wins: 84 (FanGraphs) / 90 (PECOTA)
Key subtractions: Max Scherzer (free agent), Kirby Yates (free agent), David Robertson (mutual option declined), Nathaniel Lowe (traded to Nationals)
Key additions: Jake Burger (acquired from Marlins), Joc Pederson (2/$37M)

The 2023 World Series winners fell on much harder times in 2024, not exactly beating the charges that they were an underachieving team that just managed to ignore enough of their problems for four weeks in October to win a title. I’d happily settle for the Orioles hoisting the trophy and shedding wins the next season.

I didn’t really list them all above because none of them feel individually “key”, but the Rangers have seriously rebuilt their bullpen this offseason. Six of the eight projected relievers have arrived from elsewhere since the end of last season. Five of these are free agent additions, including recent Oriole Jacob Webb and less-recent Oriole Shawn Armstrong. Yates, their 2024 closer, got one year and $13 million from the Dodgers. Texas, you really didn’t want to bring that guy back? They did retain starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi after he exercised an opt-out.

On the offense side of things, the Rangers traded away Lowe, their second-best hitter a year ago. Perhaps Burger will fill those shoes adequately. The team still has a strong middle infield duo with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, a couple of interesting young outfielders, and enough other pieces who you could squint and see it working out if everything goes right.

Within the last few days, Texas signed Patrick Corbin to join its rotation. Corbin has infamously accumulated a 5.71 ERA over the past four seasons with the Nationals, with the only virtue being that he’s started 31 or 32 games per year in that timeframe. Teams do really weird-seeming things sometimes.